Quebec flood zone map raises concerns even before its release

The new flood zone map from Quebec’s ministère de l’Environnement (Ministry of the Environment) has not yet been released, but it is already raising significant concerns about properties potentially located within these areas. Some Quebec politicians are calling for a public consultation dedicated to this issue, urging that insurance companies be invited to participate. 

Desjardins set the stage last February regarding residences in flood zones by ending mortgage financing for homes in areas classified as 0-20 year risk zones, before the new edition of the map was even released. This move by the insurer created an initial panic among affected residents. 

"The hardest hit are those who want to sell their residence located in an area deemed risky: their value has plummeted significantly," commented Jacques Demers, president of the Fédération québécoise des municipalités (FQM), in an interview with Insurance Portal. 

In addition, the number of cases is expected to increase with the publication of the new map that the ministère de l’Environnement is finalizing. It is still scheduled to be released this spring, and regulations could begin to apply by fall 2024. 

Extended flood zones 

A lot has changed since the last update of the flood zone map 20 years ago. In addition to spring flooding, severe storms can lead to massive overflows that damage many homes, as experienced in Baie-Saint-Paul in 2023. Not to mention the erosion of shorelines and the effects of rising water levels along the river, around the Gaspé Peninsula, and the Magdalen Islands. 

For the new map, the ministère de l’Environnement will continue to consider the frequency of floods and, notably, the depth of water reached. The impact of climate change will also be incorporated into the analysis, which is not currently reflected in existing maps. 

"While it is currently impossible to predict the outcome for any particular sector, it is expected that, in most cases, the flood zones will be more extensive following their new delineation," acknowledged representatives from the ministère de l’Environnement. 

Bernard Deschamps, a flood risk study researcher and environmental science Ph.D. student at the Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM), told Insurance Portal that 54 per cent of sites flooded in 2017 and 2019 were located outside the existing flood zone maps. He expects that with the publication of the new maps, vast portions of the territory previously considered little or not at all prone to flooding will now be categorized as risk areas. 

According to the information he has, the old grids for 0-20 years or 20-100 years will disappear. They will be replaced by a new grid that is easier for citizens to understand: very high, high, medium, or low risk. 

However, this expert adds, the map will not account for flood risks from runoff caused by torrential rains, as this type of event is unpredictable. 

A looming disaster 

People are already worried about bad news awaiting them with the future map, says Jacques Demers. Overnight, residences that represented the greatest asset for many households will become worthless.

"The future map could lead to a devaluation of the market value of residential buildings, greater difficulty in accessing insurance, limited access to mortgage credit, and even make selling the residence impossible. The owner risks being trapped in the flood zone," anticipates Bernard Deschamps and his colleague, hydrology researcher Michel Leclerc, in an article published in La Conversation. 

Quebec has largely developed along waterways. This future mapping could have the effect of a small cataclysm, as it will render even more riverside properties ineligible for mortgages and have a direct impact on their insurance coverage. 

Demers is eager to see this upcoming map to assess its impacts and to understand the aid and compensation that can be offered to the affected homeowners. 

The future mapping will also have positive effects: buyers will be better informed before acquiring a riverside residence, knowing its risk level. It will also be clear which lands or homes could undergo work to make the location safer. 

Small protective measures costing a few thousand dollars may sometimes be sufficient to protect residences classified in flood zones from rising waters. The government has already planned hundreds of millions of dollars to address the effects of climate change. For other houses too at risk, another avenue will be relocation. 

The president of the FQM expects challenges from citizens after the publication of the future maps when they see they have been classified in flood zones. "It's quite human," says Demers. "When people realize that their main asset is worth almost nothing, it will be a hard blow. We must think about programs to assist them." 

Call for parliamentary commission 

Another significant impact is feared: legislators in Quebec are concerned that insurers may stop offering coverage for residences located in areas deemed risky, a spokesperson for the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ), Catherine Dostie, confirmed. 

The PLQ has asked the government to hold a parliamentary commission so that legislators can be informed of the ongoing revision process and allow groups, including the Insurance Bureau of Canada (IBC), to express their views. 

The request for a self-initiated mandate before the Commission on Land Use came from Liberal MPs Virginie Dufour and Michelle Setlakwe. 

The Insurance Bureau of Canada is ready to make its voice heard. "The IBC has already indicated to the ministère de l’Environnement its intention to participate in the consultations, whatever form they may take," Pierre Babinsky, IBC’S spokesperson told the Insurance Portal. 

According to him, updated mapping that realistically represents flooding risks will be useful, not only for citizens but also for municipalities, insurers, and the government. 

"The assessment of flood risk by insurers aims to decide whether this protection can be offered or not and to determine the appropriate premium for this coverage," he clarifies. "It is unfortunate to see that the idea that a house in a flood zone is uninsurable is still widely and falsely propagated." 

Fears for homeowners 

Two representatives from the Liberal Party are concerned about the fate of homeowners who will be classified in flood zones. 

"Inevitably, insurers and mortgage lenders will react based on these new maps, and that's why the official opposition proposes that the government inform citizens and elected officials of the upcoming changes before adopting regulation so they can prepare accordingly," said Virginie Dufour and Michelle Setlakwe in a statement, expressing fear that many people might lose their properties. 

The homeowners, they added, had settled in good faith in areas where the risks of waterway overflows were, at the time, minimal or non-existent. They are direct victims of climate change, but citizens cannot be left alone to face this challenge. 

Bernard Deschamps, who speaks of panic among the riverside residents affected, expects significant social and political repercussions following the publication of the new flood zone map. He supports its release, but he wishes that solutions be proposed before regulations are issued in a few months. This would help mitigate the impacts and give people time to react and adapt to their new reality.