During the first half of the year, two successive earthquakes that struck Venezuela in June were the event associated with the largest economic losses, according to preliminary assessments published by reinsurance firms. Excluding earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, reinsurers found that weather-related events caused economic and insured losses below the average of the past five, 10 or 20 years.
Losses related to the earthquakes that struck the region around the Venezuelan capital on June 24 are estimated at between US$20 billion and US$37 billion, depending on the source. All figures that follow are in U.S. dollars.
The highest estimate comes from Swiss Re and Gallagher Re, at $37 billion. Swiss Re says it is still too early to determine the extent of insured losses related to the earthquake, but given the country’s low insurance penetration rate, it expects insured losses to be minimal. Gallagher Re estimates them at approximately $1 billion.
Swiss Re estimates that more than 5,000 people died in the disaster, while Gallagher Re reported that nearly 4,000 people had lost their lives at the time it published its assessment.
For its part, Munich Re estimates economic losses at $30 billion and the death toll at 5,500. Insured losses are expected to be less than $500 million. Aon puts losses at between $20 billion and $30 billion and the death toll at 4,800, while noting that both estimates are subject to change.
Swiss Re notes that the average trend in insured losses during the first half of the year has risen from $10 billion in 1996 to nearly $60 billion in 2026. The earthquake in Chile in 2010, the earthquakes in Japan and New Zealand in 2011 and the California wildfires in 2025 represented the costliest losses during this period.
Exposure and vulnerability
A quiet first half of the year should not be confused with an environment that is less exposed to risk, says Monica Ningen, CEO of Property & Casualty Reinsurance U.S. at Swiss Re. “The underlying drivers of risk have not changed,” she says. “Losses continue to accelerate as more people, businesses and infrastructure are located in harm’s way, asset values rise and rebuilding costs increase. As we look ahead, seasonal forecasts can influence probabilities, but they don’t change the underlying exposure. It only takes one major event in a highly exposed area to reshape the annual loss picture.”
Although the El Niño ocean current that developed in the Pacific this summer is generally associated with fewer hurricanes on the Atlantic Ocean side, Swiss Re points out that a less active season does not mean that no major hurricane will cause damage in the United States. In fact, its analysis of major hurricanes shows that, during the 1950–2025 period, 22 per cent of them made landfall in the country during years in which El Niño prevailed.
The growing concentration of people and property in hazard-prone areas, rising asset values and changing hazard characteristics continue to push catastrophe losses higher over time, says the Swiss Re Institute, which estimates that “these forces could drive long-term insured natural catastrophe loss growth of around 5 to 7 per cent annually.”
In its first-half report, Gallagher Re also makes several observations about El Niño and the impact of its intensity on tropical storm formation. The reinsurer notes that major meteorological agencies are monitoring changes in the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI). The index is used to detect climate anomalies based on rising water temperatures in the Pacific.
In 1982, with a RONI of +1.64 °C, no hurricane made landfall in the Atlantic. By contrast, in 2004, when the RONI was +0.72 °C, five hurricanes made landfall in the United States. “RONI can provide information on whether the atmosphere is favorable for storm formation, but it cannot fully guide on where an individual storm will track after it develops, since weather conditions can quickly evolve,” Gallagher Re notes.
The anomaly observed in 2004 takes into account another index, Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which is related to water temperatures in the Atlantic. In 2026, the combination of the RONI and ACE indices is approaching the conditions observed in 2004.
Gallagher Re analyzes the overlap of a strong El Niño and warmer water in the Atlantic basin with historical data on hurricane damage between 1980 and 2025. The analysis confirms a lower probability of a hurricane striking the Gulf of Mexico and Florida, but the risk increases for coastal states from Virginia northward.
Protection gap
As usual, most insured losses are related to secondary perils such as severe convective storms (SCS), floods and wildfires occurring in advanced economies. Aon estimates these insured losses at $27 billion in the United States alone during the first half, which remains below the average of nearly $40 billion over the previous three years. Munich Re estimates that these same events caused insured losses of $28 billion.
This downward trend also corresponds with a decline in the frequency of hail, severe wind and tornado events often associated with SCS compared with the average of the previous 25 years, according to Aon. One notable exception is Illinois, where 178 tornadoes had already been reported as of June 30, 2026, four times the long-term average.
Billion-dollar losses
The number of catastrophic events in which insured losses exceeded $1 billion stands at 13, according to Aon. Nine SCS events and two winter storms occurred in the United States, while Storm Kristin caused losses exceeding $1 billion in Spain and Portugal in late January.
Regarding Kristin, Munich Re reports seven deaths and economic losses of $7.7 billion, including $1.8 billion in insured losses.
Gallagher Re also counted nine SCS events in the United States alone. In its report, the firm also devotes a section to the growing significance of SCS events in Canada, particularly when they are accompanied by hailstorms. This was the case in Manitoba and Saskatchewan between June 6 and June 10. The report also notes the approximately 250 mm of rain that fell in communities in the northern suburbs of Winnipeg on June 9 and 10, which alone generated 28,000 claims, according to Manitoba Public Insurance.
Extreme heat
A first wave of extreme heat struck Europe in late May. Aon notes that temperature records were broken in 15 European countries in June 2026. The firm estimates that more than 8,300 people died because of the heat wave that struck western and central Europe between June 18 and 30, 2026. Heat waves are in fact the deadliest risk in Europe among all catastrophic events, Aon says, adding that the annual heat-related death toll will continue to rise.
The 2026 heat waves are remarkable for their earlier arrival in the year, their duration—nine days in May and 11 days in June—and the high temperatures, with several days above 40 °C. By comparison, Paris experienced 25 days of extreme heat in 2003 and 21 days in 2019, the two deadliest years in this regard.
In its loss figures, Munich Re does not include drought and extreme heat events. In its news release, however, the reinsurer states that the heat waves experienced in Europe and North America “are exacerbated by climate change.”
“Climate change and growing exposure persist, increasing the risk of larger losses in the future. The best way for society to reduce losses is to stop building in high-risk areas and keep investing in prevention,” says Thomas Blunck, a member of Munich Re’s Board of Management.
According to a report by the Robert Koch Institute, deaths caused by the heat wave in Germany alone between April and June are believed to have exceeded 5,000, Munich Re says. Although damage caused by extreme heat is difficult to quantify, a study by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) conducted in 23 countries confirms that labour productivity falls significantly when temperatures are extremely high.
Munich Re notes that in India, the monsoon arrived later than usual and rainfall was lower, affecting agricultural production. A stronger-than-normal El Niño would also increase the risk of drought in the world’s most populous country.
The influence of El Niño on the intensity, direction and duration of tropical cyclones is also well documented, Munich Re says. Typhoons could move farther north, increasing the risk of severe damage in Japan, Korea and China, which will increase losses in the second half of the year.
At the time of publication, Colombia was struck by a magnitude 7.2 earthquake on Aug. 11, 2026. At least 169 people lost their lives. On July 28, southwestern Japan was shaken by a magnitude 6.8 earthquake. Combined with the wildfires that continue to burn, particularly in Washington State and British Columbia, these events suggest that insured losses will increase in the second half of the year.
