Canada could save up to $10 billion annually by making public infrastructure more resilient to extreme heat and heavy rainfall, according to a recent report by the Canadian Climate Institute.
The authors of the study, entitled Prepare or repair: How climate-proofing public infrastructure pays off, combined engineering models, climate projections, and financial analyses based on national and insurance data.
The analysis made it possible to compile a national inventory of public infrastructure, then anticipate the evolution of climate risks, model deterioration and associated costs, and compare adaptation scenarios in order to demonstrate the benefits of early action.
These scenarios examined the status quo, a situation with no infrastructure adaptation, as well as reactive adaptation and proactive adaptation.
The lion’s share for municipalities
At present, about 14% of public infrastructure — storm sewers, bridges, roads and water treatment systems, to name just a few — is considered to be in poor condition or worse, due to “decades of underinvestment.”
“Since the mid-1970s, investment in building and maintaining public infrastructure has lagged behind population growth, inflation, and asset deterioration,” the report’s authors point out, adding that it would take public investments of $294 billion to bring existing public infrastructure back into good condition.
What’s more, municipalities have inherited responsibility for maintaining more and more infrastructure without receiving the transfers needed to do so. “Today, municipalities own more than 60 per cent of core public infrastructure but collect only about 10 per cent of government tax revenues,” the report states.
It also indicates that by 2100, municipalities will bear 72% of climate-related infrastructure costs.
Invest to save
Climate hazards generate significant expenses in terms of maintenance, repair, or replacement costs. The scenarios studied showed that preventive investments to improve infrastructure resilience significantly reduce post-disaster costs, which would allow the federal and provincial governments as well as Canadian municipalities to save billions of dollars.
By investing $3 billion per year to proactively adapt infrastructure to climate disruptions — before it becomes too deteriorated — governments could save nearly $10 billion annually in repair costs. If they wait until replacement to adapt infrastructure, these potential savings are cut in half, the report’s authors contend.
Such a strategy would increase the proportion of climate-resilient assets “from near zero today to nearly 25 per cent by 2030 and over 70 per cent by 2050,” avoiding pushing most of the expenses onto future generations.
Conversely, the scenario involving very little or no preventive adaptation indicates that the annual cost of infrastructure repair work could rise to $14.3 billion by 2050 and up to $19.4 billion by 2085.
“Climate impacts on roads alone could reach $3.4 billion annually by the 2050s without adaptation. Proactive upgrades that help roads withstand increased heat and rainfall could avoid 90 to 98 per cent of these losses, saving nearly $7 billion annually by the end of the century,” the Institute notes.
This does not include other costs generated by inaction, such as property damage, “insurance premium increases, business interruption, and supply-chain disruption,” which will negatively affect the country’s economic productivity and were not included in the researchers’ calculations.
Six recommendations
The Canadian Climate Institute identifies six areas where federal, provincial and territorial governments could act to significantly reduce the economic impacts of climate change.
The researchers first propose increasing funding to adapt infrastructure in order to close the current gap. To achieve this, they suggest partnerships between governments. In this regard, climate resilience should be considered upfront in infrastructure planning and funding rather than in reaction to disasters.
The “mainstream” integration of climate change adaptation into infrastructure planning and management is also recommended.
To improve decision-making and hazard predictability, the Institute wants governments to expand and enhance their databases and climate risk mapping at the national level. This should be accompanied by an update to building codes and infrastructure standards to reflect this new reality.
Finally, the Institute proposes adapting post-disaster assistance programs by paying particular attention to communities considered most vulnerable and infrastructure deemed essential.
“The message is clear: adapting public infrastructure proactively isn’t just an expense—it’s a smart investment,” the report’s authors state. “Acting now will save billions in future losses, while also protecting essential services and strengthening communities across the country. Waiting will only drive costs higher. Investing in infrastructure resilience today means a safer, more prosperous Canada tomorrow.”
