Canada could adopt a national flood and drought forecasting strategy thanks to an initiative by a new Liberal MP from Quebec elected in last April's federal election. Bill C-241, introduced by Tatiana Auguste, has now reached second reading in the House of Commons in Ottawa.
When she introduced the bill, she argued that it was essential. It is a major tool for protecting Canada from the devastating effects of natural disasters and limiting the associated costs. She believes it could save lives and save a lot of money.
When introducing the bill, Auguste cited insured losses related to climate events reaching a record $8.5 billion in 2024. However, in its most recent update, Catastrophe Indices and Quantification Inc. (CatIQ) estimates total insured losses to be more than $9.2 billion.
“The national strategy,” she said in the House, “aims to bring everyone to the table where decisions are being made. That will give us the opportunity to share expertise from across Canada, whether it be from Saskatchewan or Quebec. We want to enable all provinces to benefit from this expertise because if there is a problem on one side of Canada, it affects the environment and water, and it will eventually reach the rest of the country. We have a duty to act to protect all citizens.”
Why the provinces are taking charge
John Pomeroy, director of the Global Water Futures Observatories research center led by the University of Saskatchewan and professor emeritus in the university's Department of Geography and Planning, explains that in Canada the federal government has left flood forecasting to the provinces because they have constitutional responsibility for water resources and disaster management.
“However,” he adds in an email to Insurance Portal, “there is a federal role as river basins cross provincial and national boundaries, impact Indigenous communities and floods and droughts are generated from the atmosphere and weather is a federal responsibility (rainfall, snowfall).”
According to him, the lack of a national strategy has led to insufficient flood and drought warnings, as well as the development of 13 provincial/territorial systems that are not coordinated with each other, which are underdeveloped in most cases, and are not optimally coordinated with Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) data.
“These separate systems would be stronger and more capable if they were coordinated and aided by ECCC’s supercomputer facilities, university flood system research and university data systems such as Global Water Futures Observatories,” he said. “The fractured approach in Canada has led to greater risks of flood and drought damages and personal injuries and has likely led to higher insurance costs for Canadians.”
No national strategy in Canada
Most technologically advanced countries have a national flood forecasting service, but Canada still does not, even though extreme natural disasters have been increasing across the country in recent years.
Paradoxically, notes John Pomeroy, Canadian universities have developed some of the world's most sophisticated forecasting models and research data collection systems.
These should be adapted to Canada's regional needs and implemented using data systems that can predict floods and droughts, which will require new technologies and, above all, their implementation through collaboration between the federal government and provincial and territorial governments.
Provinces acting without coordination
The absence of such a national tool in Canada means that provinces operate without national coordination in the face of climate change, even though climate knows no borders. They face severe weather alone on their territories and struggle with their own resources when major natural disasters occur.
The bill, says Tatiana Auguste, could reduce Canada's dependence on data from abroad. The country relies on data collected by the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), but since October 2025, the MP says, it has begun sending “spotty data” to some organizations.
“We cannot rely on others when researchers at universities such as UQAM and the University of Saskatchewan are internationally recognized leaders in the field,” she stated. “Even so, they cannot do all the work. It is up to us to step up and work together on a national strategy.”
John Pomeroy, who speaks of “urgency,” believes that implementation costs would be relatively low thanks to significant investments in research projects such as the Global Water Futures program ($78 million), the Global Water Futures Observatories center ($40 million), and the FloodNet network ($5 million), which have made it possible to develop the software and data systems essential to a national system. The implementation of a coordinated Canadian system would also generate savings by avoiding duplication of services between provinces and territories.
“It will cost us far more money not to do this than is required to design and build resilient national infrastructure that is envisioned by the current federal government,” says the scientist.
However, Tatiana Auguste's momentum was quickly slowed by her own party. When Mark Carney's government tabled its federal budget on November 4, it did not allocate any funds for the implementation of this strategy.
