In an increasingly complex and interconnected world, one disruption can lead to another in a cascading chain reaction that could threaten the global economy.
In its Global Risks Report 2019 – 14th Edition, the World Economic Forum (WEF) presents ten shocks that could disrupt or destabilize the world along with suggestions for preventing these more or less speculative risks.
The digital threat
1) Endangered data. With the development of quantum computing, computers will be able to perform calculations much faster than today’s digital computers, but this progress will no doubt render obsolete most current forms of encryption.
The absence of cryptography will jeopardize the protection of not just sensitive personal information but also corporate and state data. The impact will be felt in online and economic activity including emails, e-commerce, and banking services.
The WEF suggests that some will turn to new alternatives, such as hash-based cryptography, while others will stop posting sensitive information online, preferring to rely on in-person exchanges.
2) Digital surveillance. Fingerprint sensors, facial recognition, digital lip reading: technology is increasingly being used to identify individuals.
This proliferation and omnipresence of biometrics is creating a new form of social control, with everything about us captured, stored, and subjected to artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms. Global politics will be affected since authoritarianism is easier in a world of total visibility and traceability
Regulations must be implemented both nationally and internationally to ensure the accountability of governments and companies using these technologies.
3) Affective computing. Advances in artificial intelligence enable robots to recognize and respond to human emotions.
This will create new possibilities for radicalizing individuals, with states using machines to identify emotionally receptive individuals and triggers that could incite them to violence. Oppressive governments could also use affective computing to fuel division.
To mitigate this threat, mandatory standards could be introduced to ensure that research and development in this area upholds ethical standards. Moreover, the risks should be better understood by everyone.
Social and societal tensions
4) The urban-rural divide. People are increasing migrating from rural to urban areas. This rural exodus is widening the gap between these two worlds in terms of values, education, and prosperity.
Widening divisions in various areas could erode the unity of states. Diverging political views between rural and urban areas, for example, could lead to electoral volatility.
The WEF recommends better long-term planning for both expanding cities and rural areas at risk of decline. Strengthening transport systems and finding ways to more widely redistribute the wealth generated by urbanization, for example, could help soften the urban-rural divide.
5) Water shortages. More and more large cities are moving toward a “water day zero,” when their taps will run dry. These risks are exacerbated by population growth and climate change, and cities must take steps now to slow the countdown.
The societal shock of running out of water could amplify divisions between the rich and the poor, leading to conflict and straining healthcare systems.
This risk could be mitigated by careful planning during times of plentiful water, public awareness campaigns, and the implementation of water reclamation projects.
6) Violation of human rights. At a time of domestic polarization, governments tend to sacrifice individual rights to collective stability.
In democratic countries such as Hungary and Poland, this has led to the development of illiberalism, a political philosophy under which basic rights (freedom of assembly, freedom of religion, right to dignity) are not necessarily protected.
According to the WEF, in a world where fundamental values are growing further and further apart, finding common ground in this area may be next to impossible.
7) Monetary populism. Surging protectionism may push some governments to question the role of central banks. Their coordination at the international level could be seen as an affront to national sovereignty.
If the global financial architecture is threatened by political leaders, financial markets could begin to tremble, and currencies to fluctuate. All this would impact the real economy.
To mitigate this risk, the public should be educated about the need to support the legitimacy of central banks.
New wars
8) Food supply disruption. With climate change and heightened international tensions, food could become a geopolitical issue. Trade wars could lead to threats to disrupt food supplies, with states targeting the crops of their rivals with biological attacks, for example.
The global food supply chain could be disrupted, leading to the need for rationing or even widespread famine. People could begin to hoard food and even resort to stealing it in their struggle to survive.
Countries can reduce this risk through agricultural diversification and more self-sufficient food production.
9) Weather wars. Geopolitical tensions could be fuelled by the increased use of weather manipulation tools. Cloud seeding is already used locally to induce rain or suppress hail.
Large-scale use of these weather manipulation tools could cause states to accuse their neighbours of disrupting their agriculture or of using cloud-seeding planes to spy on them. The use of more radical geo-engineering technologies could trigger “dramatic climatic disruptions.”
To reduce this threat, governments must actively collaborate and establish greater transparency about their actions.
10) Sharing space. Satellites are increasingly used for commercial and government activities in space, especially in the booming telecommunications sector.
Space could thus become an arena for geopolitical conflict. With the emergence of space-based terrorism, countries could feel a need to militarize space.
New multilateral agreements could mitigate this risk. According to the WEF, even simple measures could help—such as ensuring transparency on debris-removal activities to prevent collisions, thereby preventing the misinterpretation of intentions.
The 7 articles in this series:
- The environment: the greatest risk to the economy
- The U.S. turns inward: a risk to the global economy
- Mental health: The social cost of poor mental health
- Bacteria and viruses: Future weapons of warfare
- Rising sea levels: An increasingly real threat to coastal cities
- Ten major future shocks
- Ever-intensifying threats
