Canada’s newly published National Risk Profile is the initial draft of a new national report assessing the risks of natural disasters in the country, launched by the federal government. Based on rigorous research, it is the result of collective participation from provinces, territories and experts, as well.
During a press conference, federal minister of civil protection, Bill Blair spoke about the report's objectives. He shared his concern about the results and the challenges the government must face in anticipating natural disasters.
In short, the report reveals that Canada is currently not adequately prepared to handle emergency situations caused by climate change.
Current situation overview
Researchers estimate that an increasing number of extreme weather events and natural disasters will be caused by climate change. The report focuses on three phenomena: floods, earthquakes and forest fires.
“These assessments provide an overview of the disaster risks Canada faces and the current capabilities of our emergency management system to address them. This knowledge can help determine measures that can reduce these risks for all Canadians,” reveals the National Risk Profile.
According to Canada’s 2019 report on climate change, the country is warming twice as fast as the global average and three times faster in the north. These climate changes bring tragic events, including Hurricane Fiona, considered to be the most intense storm ever experienced in the Atlantic region.
Another increasingly recurrent phenomenon is earthquakes. The report reveals that over 5,000 earthquakes are recorded each year in Canada. The two most active cities, Montreal and Vancouver, face a high risk of earthquakes in the next twenty-five years.
Regarding floods, they are considered the most frequent and costly natural disaster in Canada. They are often caused by increased snow and ice melt, as well as rising water levels in seas and inland lakes, direct consequences of climate change.
"Nearly 83 per cent of Canadians live in urban areas, and approximately 80 per cent of major Canadian cities are located entirely or partially in flood-prone areas," the risk profile states.
As for forest fires, they pose a significant threat to Indigenous populations, who are forced to be relocated to other regions. Some Indigenous communities have been evacuated five times in the past twenty years. Exposure to wildfire smoke causes chronic respiratory diseases and premature mortality within these communities.
Consequences for the economy and for insurers
The national profile states that a major earthquake in British Columbia or certain regions of Quebec and Ontario could quickly become the most expensive natural disaster Canada has ever faced.
The Insurance Bureau of Canada (IBC) estimates that the damages caused by a 9.0 magnitude earthquake in British Columbia could exceed $75-billion. Quebec also has two seismic zones that could result in a major earthquake costing up to $61-billion in losses.
Regarding floods, they annually cause approximately $1.5-billion in damages. According to a recent report from the Flood Insurance and Relocation Assistance Task Group of Canada, estimated costs for residential flooding could reach up to $2.9-billion per year.
In contrast, wildfires are less costly than earthquakes and floods. For example, in 2016, the most expensive disaster in Canadian history was the Fort McMurray wildfires, which caused over $7-billion in losses, of which only $3.75-billion were insured.
Although insured catastrophic losses in Canada average around $2-billion per year, the profile notes that a significant portion of losses is not covered by insurance.
Every year, floods result in uninsured losses of $800-million and insured damages of $700-million. In comparison, for an earthquake causing estimated losses of $75-billion, it is estimated that insured damages would amount to $20-billion.
Government involvement with the population
"Only one-in-ten Canadians have taken measures to reduce the risk of their homes being affected by weather-related emergencies or disasters," reveals the profile.
Furthermore, an opinion survey conducted in 2021 by Ipsos on behalf of the federal government revealed that 21 per cent of Canadians are unaware of the specific level of risk they face, and 47 per cent believe they live in a low-risk region. These figures demonstrate gaps in the knowledge of the Canadian population regarding disaster risk awareness.
"The adoption of insurance in high-risk areas for earthquakes, especially in Quebec and Ontario, as well as in high-risk and flood-prone homes, is low," state the authors of the profile.
The profile also highlights a lack of coordination among different levels of government, insufficient information available for natural disaster management and a lack of knowledge about Indigenous communities when it comes to evacuation or relocation.
Government promises and objectives
While the National Risk Profile emphasizes significant gaps in Canada's natural disaster management, it also proposes solutions.
During the conference held on May 11 regarding the risk profile’s release, Blair stated that the government is prepared to implement more accessible tools for citizens, such as modern flood maps online, indicating the homes or businesses most exposed to flood risks. An allocation of $15.3-million has been provided for this purpose in the most recent federal budget.
The escalating wildfires are also a concerning threat for the government, which is currently working on mapping fire risks.
In addition to these initiatives, the federal government aims to improve access to information on earthquake preparedness and mitigation throughout society. "Earthquake insurance is not included in standard home insurance policies," it states.
Canada also plans to launch an early warning system for earthquakes next year. Although this system will not be able to predict major seismic events, it can notify the population a few seconds before they occur. This could provide valuable seconds for those not in the immediate epicenter to seek safety before severe shaking begins.
