Dire predictions of the effects of climate change are nothing new.
Nowadays, data hammering in the seriousness of the situation are surfacing constantly.
The Canadian Institute for Climate Choices released a report in late spring that underlines the impacts of climate change on the health of Canadians and the cost to society. This “publicly funded, non-partisan, and independently governed” organization brought together 19 Canadian researchers who concluded that increased heat and smog from climate change alone could cause hundreds of thousands of early deaths in Canada and compromise the health and productivity of thousands of Canadians by the end of the century.
In economic terms, the report projects exorbitant costs to the Canadian economy, ranging from billions of dollars in additional expenditures on Canada's health care systems to tens of billions of dollars in lost productivity. Add the value of lost quality of life and premature death associated with climate change, and the total economic cost to Canada would run into the hundreds of billions of dollars.
The cost of doing nothing
The Canadian Institute for Climate Choices has also compiled a list of Canada-specific consequences if climate change is not addressed in a major way. The average number of days where the temperature can lead to heat-related death, as recently seen in British Columbia, is projected to reach 75 to 100 per year by the end of the century. The equivalent of 10 to 14 weeks each summer.
As temperatures rise, ground-level ozone, which is a component of smog, also increases in all scenarios. The 19 researchers at the Canadian Institute for Climate Choices estimate that by the end of the century, ground-level ozone could cause more than a quarter of a million hospitalizations or premature deaths per decade, at an annual cost of about $250 billion.
The Institute's researchers also point out that climate change has already increased the frequency and severity of wildfires across the country. Memorable examples include the Fort McMurray fire in 2016 and the Lytton fire this summer. These catastrophes generate air pollution and widespread economic devastation in the affected areas. “The health impacts of wildfires are already being felt across the country and will only continue to get worse,” the report reads.
Under the high emissions scenario, climate change could result in 128 million lost work hours annually by the end of the 21st century in Canada due to the effects of heat on productivity. This is the equivalent of 62,000 full-time jobs, or $14.8 billion in lost productivity per year.
In addition to the estimated damages, climate has health effects that are still difficult to measure, the researchers add. The cost of these effects could far exceed those stated in the report. For example, climate change is likely to affect the mental health of the population, transform ecosystems and negatively impact cultures and lifestyles. “These losses may not be on balance sheets or in government budgets, but to overlook them risks ignoring some of the most critical impacts of climate change on health and well-being,” the report cautions.
Ten per cent drop in GDP
The Canadian Institute’s apprehensions are mirrored by the reinsurer Swiss Re. It argues that if no action is taken to combat climate change, the global economy will lose 18 per cent of its gross domestic product if the temperature rises by 3.2 degrees Celsius within 30 years. For Canada, the loss will be close to ten per cent, the reinsurer said in its study The economics of climate change: no action not an option.
To put this steep decline in perspective, Canada is the fifth best equipped country to adapt to climate change. Swiss Re compiled an index of nearly 50 countries to assess the expected economic impact of “chronic” climate risks related to gradual temperature rises.
This index measures the degree to which a country is vulnerable to extreme weather events and severe hot/wet conditions, while taking into account its current adaptive capacity. Only Finland, Switzerland, Austria and Portugal score better than Canada.
However, Canada did not fare as well in another Swiss Re ranking. It ranks 20th in a list of 33 countries for its resilience to natural disasters. Swiss Re estimates the protection gap of Canadian households and businesses for natural disasters at $2 billion. This means that insurers in Canada could cover more weather-related risks. Denmark, France and New Zealand are among the most resilient countries in terms of natural catastrophe coverage, the reinsurer finds.
