The CFIB Business Barometer, a monthly, long-term index based on a survey probing 12-month forward expectations for business performance, crashed to an all-time low in March, shedding 24.8 index points to land at just 25. Optimism in all provinces crashed to levels never seen previously in the barometer’s existence.
“The small business confidence indicated reached a lower mark than it did at any time during the 2020 pandemic, the 2008 financial crisis or 9/11,” the CFIB states in an announcement about the findings.
“Small business owners are feeling pessimistic about their business’ perspectives for the next few months or even beyond. It’s hard to make critical decisions for the long, medium or short term when so much can change within a matter of hours,” says Simon Gaudreault, CFIB chief economist and vice president of research. “No one knows when the tariff war will end. Businesses are worried the worst is yet to come.”
Lay offs planned
Employees will also be feeling the pressure: Wage increase plans among survey respondents dropped to 1.9 per cent from 2.2 per cent in February, while 19 per cent of small firms plan to lay off employees, up from 13 per cent who said the same thing the previous month. “Insufficient demand has been steadily trending upwards since November 2024, reaching a new historical high of 59 per cent of affected small firms in March, eclipsing the pandemic high mark of 53 per cent for this indicator,” they write. Product input costs also leaped suddenly, according to 49 per cent of firms surveyed.
Tariffs, meanwhile, are already having a negative impact on small and mid-sized firms, according to 62 per cent of the survey’s respondents. One quarter said there was no impact yet and 12 per cent said they were unsure about the impact tariffs will have on their businesses.
Based on 1,065 responses collected in early March, they say the short-term optimism index, based on a three-month outlook instead of 12, also plummeted to 31.2.
