Population growth continues to decouple from emissions trends

Oil and gas, transportation and heavy industry remain outlier industries in emissions trends in Canada, a drag slowing progress towards 2030 emissions targets. Authors of a recent report from 440 Megatonnes and Stiebert Consulting say emissions per unit of GDP declined by three per cent in 2023, improving on historical trends, but not enough to help the country meet stated emissions targets. “To get on track, an annual reduction of seven per cent is needed,” they write.

The Early Estimate of National Emissions (EENE) is released by the two organizations seven months ahead of the National Inventory Report from Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC).

“By the time Canada’s national greenhouse gas emissions inventory report is published each spring, the data is already 16 months out of date,” they state. “Early estimates for 2023 show that progress is possible, but hitting Canada’s 2030 target requires that governments build on policy momentum.” 

Following a post-COVID rebound reported in 2022, the early emissions report indicates that emission dropped one per cent in 2023. National emissions are now 702 megatonnes of carbon-dioxide equivalent (Mt), they say, which is eight per cent below 2005 levels, “but still far from the 40 per cent reduction target for 2030.” 

Oil, gas and transportation 

The report also looks at progress by sector saying electricity made strides but rising emission in oil and gas and transportation offset any gains made. Notably, they say the 2023 drop in emissions occurred despite strong economic and population growth. 

“Economic growth in 2023 pushed emissions up by 8.6 Mt CO2e from the previous year. However, the impact of climate policy and changing markets, including accelerating clean energy technology development, reduced emissions by 14.2 Mt, resulting in an overall net decrease of 5.6 Mt.” 

They conclude saying progress is being made in certain areas but national emissions have plateaued overall. “Each order of government needs to build on policy momentum – particularly in sectors like oil and gas.”