The third quarter of 2022 confirms a trend observed in the previous two years: insured losses from natural disasters are likely to exceed the $100 billion mark for the third year in a row.

Professional services consulting firm Aon PLC recently released its Q3 Global Catastrophe Recap report.

From July to September, four major catastrophes struck and confirmed that the $100 billion mark for insured losses is likely to be reached in 2022.

The report states that “preliminary year-to-date economic losses, including an initial view of Hurricane Ian based on various publicly available estimates, were $227 billion, with roughly $99 billion of the total expected to be covered by public and private insurers.” 

September was a particularly busy month for tropical cyclones with Hurricane Ian, Hurricane Fiona and super typhoons Noru and Nanmadol in the western Pacific.

In the case of Fiona, which hit the Caribbean before hitting the east coast of Canada, 31 people lost their lives and the losses are approximately $3.1 billion. 

Hurricane Ian  

The quarterly report highlights the very preliminary nature of the estimated losses due to the enormous damage caused by Hurricane Ian, which struck from September 23 to October 1.

Although initial estimates indicate that losses will exceed several tens of billions of dollars, the final toll will not be determined for several months. But Ian is already shaping up to be the most expensive hurricane to hit Florida.

Aon is already predicting that this storm will be the worst disaster of the year and has the potential to be one of the most expensive in history for insurers. Damage is seen to be concentrated on the west coast and central Florida. Aon says that a very large number of properties damaged by high winds were also hit by Hurricane Irma in 2017. 

The impact of the damage from the torrential rains that flooded many of Florida's non-waterfront counties should not be underestimated. Away from the coast, there is very little coverage by insurers for damage caused by storm flooding. Therefore, it is expected that many of the losses associated with this disaster will not be covered by insurers, the report states. 

Flooding in Australia  

The flooding on the east coast of Australia is already considered the worst disaster in the country's history. As of Oct. 11, Sydney had already received 2,306 mm of rain since the beginning of the year. This volume already exceeded the record set in 1950 with two and a half months left in the summer season.

The Cat Alert report published by Aon on October 20 devoted several pages to flooding in Australia. Tasmania was particularly affected by the heavy rains that continued into mid-October. In seven municipalities, rainfall had exceeded 200 mm.

Rainfall volumes remain lower than last February as atmospheric fronts are moving more quickly. Some 234,000 claims were made last February for an estimated $7.5 billion in damage.

The monsoon  

In Pakistan and India, summer monsoon-related flooding caused more than 3,500 deaths. In Pakistan, nearly 1,700 deaths were linked to the floods and this number is likely to increase. People have died from malnutrition or disease.

The country's major rivers (Hindus, Gilgit) have reached historic flows due to the exceptional rains, but also due to the melting of glaciers in the mountainous regions of their watershed. The country has the largest number of glaciers outside the polar regions.

Precipitation volumes were the highest since 1961 in July and August. In Pakistan's southern provinces of Balochistan and Sindh, rainfall was four to eight times greater than normal in July and August. Badin received 219 mm on July 25. In Padidan on August 19, rainfall totaled 355 mm.

In Jacobabad, the daytime temperature exceeded 38°C (100°F) for 51 consecutive days, reaching a record 51°C on May 14.

In 2010, the previous worst year for flooding, damage was concentrated in the northwest, while in 2022 all regions experienced exceptional flooding. 

Droughts and heat waves  

Very high temperatures in Europe caused droughts, deadly heat waves and numerous forest fires in several Western European countries. China also experienced numerous heat waves during the summer of 2022.

Historic high temperature records were set, particularly in the United Kingdom. In Coningsbury, the mercury climbed to 40.3°C, the highest temperature recorded in the entire country.

The heat wave also took its toll overnight at Kenley Airfield, where the minimum temperature reached 25.8°C, another national record.

The first heat wave in mid-June resulted in an estimated 3,700 deaths, while 13,000 people died in the second heat wave in mid-July.

Drought made navigation impractical on several major rivers (Danube, Rhein, Po) during the summer. The scarcity of drinking water caused heavy losses to agricultural producers. In mid-August, mapping by the European observatory monitoring the impact of the drought showed that almost half of the European continent was covered by the orange alert and 17% by the red alert, indicating damage to agricultural land.

Losses were particularly high in Spain, Italy, France and Hungary. Drought and heat-related losses are estimated at $19 billion, which is the second most catastrophic summer for drought and heat on the European continent, after 2003.

Forest fires burned areas well above the annual average across Europe, both in EU and non-EU countries.

In Spain, nearly 300,000 ha were burned, more than four times the average area damaged during the period 2006-2021. 

Only the beginning  

For all of 2022, heat waves are already estimated to have caused the deaths of at least 16,700 people in Europe. Aon used this exceptional European summer as an example of higher risks, according to a study published last September.

Heat is now ranked as the most deadly risk. Droughts and scarcity of drinking water are phenomena that will increase in severity as the climate warms, Aon says. This will have significant impacts on land use, human health and economic activity.

For example, the study says that rail temperatures on the UK rail network reached 62°C in July 2022, forcing the disruption of traffic on several sections. The stress tests conducted on the steel used are done at a temperature of 27°C.

Above average  

The quarterly report highlights other findings regarding the increase in global average temperature. In July 2022, compared to the average since 1880, the temperature was 0.88 degrees Celsius (°C) warmer.

This difference makes July 2022 the sixth warmest month on record. Note that in this ranking of the 10 warmest years in July, nine have occurred since 2010.

August 2022 (+0.9°C) is also the 6th warmest month compared to the annual average since 1880. In the list of the 10 warmest August months, nine have occurred since 2014.

As for September 2022 (+0.88 °C), it comes in as the 5th warmest September, tying with September 2021 in the ranking.