The Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) published its most recent Main Street Quarterly, which suggests that economic growth is expected to rebound just 1.4 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. “There is no recession in sight for the short term,” they write.

“CPI inflation, both total and excluding food and energy, is expected to continue its downward trend, reaching 3.3 per cent and 3.7 per cent in Q2 and 2.4 per cent and 2.6 per cent in Q3, respectively.” 

They say business investment should pick up, but remain lower than year-ago figures.

Employment growth, meanwhile, dropped one per cent in the second quarter. A rebound is also expected but the growth rate should also be more moderate than a year ago. “The national job vacancy rate maintained its elevated trend in Q2, declining just 0.1 per cent to 4.6 per cent. This represents 656,900 unfilled positions,” they write. “Vacancy rates remain well above previous historical peaks but on the year-over-year comparison, we can see some easing in labour markets.”

The report looks at job vacancies by province and sector, and discusses the risk of business closure, saying about 12 per cent of all firms were at risk of closing in the second quarter of 2023. “By sector, the largest share of small and medium-sized enterprises at risk of closing were in retail and agriculture. Generally speaking, the smaller the firm, the higher the likelihood of closing.”