A new report from Scotiabank Economics, released this week, looks in depth at the economic growth prospects for each of Canada’s provinces in the coming two years. It says British Columbia will lead the provinces in economic growth in 2020.
In 2021, the bank expects Alberta will take the take the top spot. Overall, the bank is calling for growth to moderate in the coming two years, with major project activity helping to accelerate growth in the west.
“Helped by work related to the LNG Canada project in Kitimat, a healthy labour market and recovering home sales activity, B.C. will lead the provinces in economic growth in 2020,” says Scotiabank provincial economist, Marc Desormeaux. “Accelerating investment activity and job creation are expected to drive Alberta’s growth in 2021.”
Trade tensions
The report says moderating employment growth is a key factor behind projections for easing economic gains. Trade tensions, meanwhile, and a slowing U.S. economy in 2020 also contributed to more modest provincial outlooks. Finally, the banks says “budget balance projections have largely improved since our last update but different provinces are taking different fiscal policy approaches to address slowing growth and heightened uncertainty.”
The report offers forecasts for real and nominal GDP, employment, unemployment, housing starts, motor vehicle sales and budget balances in each of the provinces for the coming two years. It also examines housing, labour, population growth, domestic economies, their external sector prospects, trade tensions and trading, major project activity, public finance initiatives and investment activity.
