A new study from the University of Toronto’s Dalla Lana School of Public Health, entitled Projected Patterns of Illness in Ontario, has found that 3.1-million adults in Ontario will be living with at least one major illness in 2040, up from 1.8-million in 2020. “Approximately one in four adults over age 30 will live with a major illness in 2040, requiring significant hospital care, up from approximately one in eight individuals in 2002,” they write.
“Our projections suggest that more Ontarians will be living with major illness, and the number of cases will rise for chronic conditions,” adds Dr. Adalsteinn Brown, dean of the public health school.
“In addition to more people living with a major illness, the number of illnesses any individual will be living with will also increase significantly,” they add. “Multimorbidity is also rising, which refers to the presence of two or more co-morbid, chronic conditions.”
While the report examines the implications for the province’s health system, the implications for insurers are also interesting: “Major illnesses are expected to increase substantially in the age 30 to 64 age group of the population – or working age population, from 5.7 per cent in 2002 and 9.2 per cent in 2020 to over 10 per cent in 2040,” they write. “An additional 5.1-million people will be living with some illness in 2040, up from 2.9-million in 2002 and 3.9-million in 2020.”
Conditions that are expected to increase the most in number are those which increase with age, they add. These include osteoarthritis, diabetes and cancer.
