Environment and Climate Change Canada has come out with new research that says climate change caused by humans makes heat waves today more likely.  

They base this on analysis conducted using the government’s Rapid Extreme Weather Event Attribution system which compares two climate models – today’s observed levels of greenhouse gasses “and other results of human activity,” comparing this to the climate and atmospheric gas levels in the 1800s, prior to the Industrial Revolution. 

They say several days after a heat wave, scientists can compare the two different climates and calculate the difference between the two to find out how much human activity has changed the chances of heat waves happening. The models analyze temperatures in 17 different regions.  

Currently in a pilot stage, the attribution system currently only analyzes heat waves. Work to extend the system to analyze extreme cold and extreme precipitation is currently underway, they add.  

Analyzing heatwaves in June and July this year, they say in all instances, human influence on the climate made the events between two and 10 times more likely to happen. “Extreme weather attribution is the science of calculating how much human-caused climate change has influenced extreme weather events,” they state, adding that the information is intended to support informed decision making and environmental education efforts.