The climate is changing, and the impacts of this shift on communities, particularly in the country’s northernmost regions, are becoming more significant and concerning, according to scientists who have just updated the Canada’s Changing Climate Report 2026.
On Sept. 3, Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) issued a terse news release late in the day announcing the publication of a major update to the report. The release reiterated recent climate-related decisions by the federal government without revealing anything about the contents of the report, which runs more than 1,500 pages.
ECCC also released a more digestible summary of about 40 pages. During a webinar held Sept. 10 by the Canadian Climate Institute (CCI), one of the report’s co-authors, Chris Derksen, answered questions from Ryan Ness, the Institute’s director of adaptation. Derksen is acting director of the Climate Modelling Research Division at the federal Department of Environment and Climate Change.
The researcher sought to summarize the main findings of some 100 scientists who worked for three years to produce the extensive report. The first edition of the Report was published in 2019.
Derksen notes that the report includes case studies on the impact of climate warming on First Nations, Inuit and Métis people living in the northern part of the country. Changes in the landscape are presented, among other things, as a new indicator of permafrost thaw.
As early as Sept. 4, 2026, the CCI said the report’s findings confirmed that Canada would not meet its target of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 440 megatonnes by 2030, as set out under the Paris Agreement on climate change. In addition, Canada will not meet its 2050 net-zero target, the organization said in another analysis published Sept. 11.
Extreme weather
On Sept. 2, a severe thunderstorm caused extensive damage in the Toronto area, including at Rogers Stadium, which serves as a temporary venue for outdoor shows. At the beginning of the webinar, Rick Smith, president of the Canadian Climate Institute, said he had watched the storm approach from his office. The Toronto neighbourhood where he lives is frequently flooded during heavy rainfall. “The infrastructure in this area, like that in many other cities across the country, needs to be upgraded to better withstand today’s climate realities,” Smith says.
“These extreme events are how a lot of us experienced climate change,” Derksen adds. “If we increase the frequency of these events, we will increase the cost that we have to bear from these events,” he continues.
The researcher also stresses that “the imprint of climate change on the landscape is just so pervasive in the north.” Average temperatures are rising more rapidly near the poles.
The impacts of this warming are already evident, according to Derksen. “For the Canadian Arctic, it means shorter snow cover seasons, shorter sea ice seasons and more open water.”
Residents’ ability to travel for subsistence hunting is reduced. “When you melt snow two months earlier, you’re really changing how people travel across and interface with the landscape,” he says.
Even if warming is brought under control, some permafrost will have thawed and released methane, while mountain glaciers will continue to melt, creating further impacts on the climate, Chris Derksen adds. These impacts are highlighted in statements 7 and 12 of the report.
“It’s just important that people understand that the changes we’re seeing are quite pervasive. Some of them we can limit, if we can limit warming, and some of them we’re going to have to continue to adapt to even if we do manage to limit warming,” the ECCC report co-author emphasizes.
Key statements
The report’s first key statement is unequivocal: between 1948 and 2023, Canada’s average temperature rose by 2°C, while the country’s northern regions warmed by 2.6°C. Warming can be observed in every region and in every season, but it is greater in winter and fall than in spring and summer.
“Drawing on new and stronger evidence, there is higher confidence in the attribution of warming in Canada to human influence than in the assessment made in the CCCR2019,” the report summary states on page 11.
The second statement confirms that warming has accelerated in Canada since 1970 and has occurred twice as fast in Canada as the global average. The Canadian Arctic warmed three times faster than the global average over the same period.
Total annual precipitation has increased since the late 1940s, with the largest increase occurring in northern Canada. The best estimate is 9.7 per cent between 1949 and 2023, with most of the increase attributable to human influence, the report states in its third key statement. In Canada’s northern territories, the regional average for total annual precipitation rose by 18.9 per cent over the same period.
Interconnected and irreversible changes
During the Sept. 10 webinar, Chris Derksen emphasized the report’s fourth statement: “Climate warming has driven wide-ranging, interconnected and sustained changes across Canada,” he says.
“The changes include more extreme heat, less extreme cold, longer growing seasons, longer wildfire seasons, earlier peak stream flow, shorter snow and ice cover seasons, thinning glaciers, thawing permafrost, warming oceans and rising sea level,” the report states.
In the short term, Canada’s average annual temperature is expected to rise by nearly another degree Celsius by 2040, bringing warming to 2.7°C compared with temperatures during the pre-industrial period (1850–1900).
The report’s authors note that the level of global GHG emissions will determine whether climate warming in Canada stabilizes or intensifies during the second half of this century.
Climate warming and related changes to Canada’s climate are “essentially irreversible.” If temperatures stabilize, the melting of sea ice could also stabilize. Sea-level rise, glacier melt and permafrost thaw will continue even after surface temperatures stabilize, the authors add.
Frequency and severity
Human-caused warming has already affected the frequency and intensity of extreme temperature events in Canada, the report’s authors continue.
In addition, droughts and flash floods will become more frequent and severe as warming increases. Researchers also expect wildfire weather to become more frequent and intense across most regions of Canada, further extending the fire season.
Freshwater availability during the summer in southern Canada is threatened by changes in the water cycle. Scientists note that reductions in the contribution of glaciers to summer streamflow in some watersheds in Western Canada have already been observed.
During the CCI webinar, Chris Derksen recalled the Aug. 26 disaster along the Nepal-Tibet (China) border following a flash flood caused by the calving of a piece of a glacier. Although the local conditions surrounding that event are not found in Canada, he believes the risk should not be overlooked.
“We do know that water from melting glaciers has to go somewhere. Often times, it forms a temporary lake. Those lakes eventually then give away. And so there are hazards related to melting glaciers. It’s not just a water supply problem, it’s a hazard problem as well,” Derksen explains.
Sea-level variations
In some parts of the Atlantic and Pacific coastal regions, sea levels will rise faster than the global average, the authors state in statement 13. Extreme high-water events will be exacerbated during periods of stronger storm surges and high tides.
The report’s authors note the warming and acidification of the oceans surrounding Canada’s coasts. The oceans will continue to warm, absorb carbon dioxide (CO2) and become more acidic as temperatures and CO2 concentrations increase.
Finally, the status of land and oceans as carbon sinks in the coming decades is being called into question. Oceans will continue to absorb more carbon, but for land, the level of certainty is moderate: stronger vegetation growth could be offset by carbon emissions caused by wildfires, permafrost thaw and other disturbances, the authors state in the report’s fifteenth and final key statement.
Chris Derksen notes that the federal government will also release an update on the impact of climate change on the health of Canadians, with a focus on reduced air quality caused by wildfires and episodes of extreme heat.
The United Nations (UN) confirmed the previous week that the 2015 Paris Agreement target of limiting warming to 1.5°C will inevitably be reached. The 2°C target was an upper-limit, Derksen notes. “That means we are in an overshoot scenario,” he says.
There is uncertainty associated with exceeding the target, he continues. “We don’t know what the climate system behaves like in that scenario. We’ve never been there before.” He points to the efforts of research consortiums, including Ouranos in Quebec, which publish analyses explaining the impacts and proposing adaptation measures at the provincial or regional level.
The report authors’ findings provide much to reflect on, according to the researcher. “We have the information we need. We understand the uncertainties. We know what our potential future pathways work with. So now, it’s incumbent on all of us to use that information to do as much informed work as we can collectively to address what’s a really significant challenge,” Derksen concludes.
