ATB Financial says there are three key factors that will influence the direction of Alberta’s economy in 2023, including energy market activity, inflation and positive migration patterns. It says the province faces the same challenges as the rest of the world but adds that it remains economically well positioned for the immediate future.
The economic forecast calls for real GDP growth of 2.8 per cent for the province in 2023.
In oil production, September saw the province reach its highest levels of output in the province’s history. With average production at 3.9-million barrels per day, companies have increased their capital spending plans, the firm states. Headline inflation remains elevated at 6.9 per cent in October but they say this will moderate in the coming year. Interest rates, meanwhile, are expected to rise over four per cent and stay there throughout the year.
Migration patterns bode well for the province, with nearly 60,000 people from other countries settling in Alberta in 2022. “This has played a key role in boosting residential activity,” they write. “Strong migration levels are also expected to improve Alberta’s labour market and alleviate some of the staffing challenges.” They add that the province’s unemployment rate will remain around 5.8 per cent this year, in 2023 and in 2024, as well.
“As 2022 draws to an end, many countries are edging closer to recession due to tighter monetary policy, slower global growth, geopolitical strife and the lingering pandemic. The Alberta economy can’t avoid these headwinds, but it will continue to advance on the back of its natural resource industries and growing population.”
