Using relatively new systems designed to forecast seasonal climate conditions up to a year in advance, the Government of Canada has published its first publicly available annual global mean temperature forecast showing 2025 is not likely to break heat records set in 2024, but that the year will still be warmer than every year on record prior to 2023.
“Canada’s first annual global mean temperature forecast marks a significant milestone in the government’s ability to provide important climate insights on a global scale,” Environment and Climate Change Canada states. “This work supports planning in areas such as agriculture, disaster preparedness, water management and climate adaptation.”
According to the report, global temperatures in 2025 will remain at least one degree above pre-industrial levels for the 12th consecutive year. Although it will likely be slightly cooler than in 2024 – the hottest year on record and the first to globally exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold established by the Paris Agreement – they add that there is a probability greater than 99 per cent that 2025 will be hotter than every year on record prior to 2023. There is only a 17 per cent chance of exceeding 2024 temperature records in 2025.
“The forecast reaffirms that the significant increase in global temperatures over the past two years is not a temporary fluctuation,” they state. “Looking ahead, Canada’s climate model predicts the next five years will be the warmest five-year period on record.”
They say the high temperatures are forecasted to persist, despite the end of El Niño, which warmed the tropical Pacific, boosting global temperatures in both 2023 and 2024.
“Canadian communities and businesses are experiencing climate change impacts with greater intensity and frequency,” observes Canada’s minister of environment and climate change, Steven Guilbeault. “The new publicly available global temperature forecast is part of the Government of Canada’s commitment to provide trusted climate data.”