Pandemic-related excess mortality expected to linger for years

Swiss Re estimates that COVID-19 may lead to the longest period of peacetime excess mortality – pushing excess mortality in the general United States population to three per cent and to 2.5 per cent in the United Kingdom by 2033.  

“A key driver of excess mortality is the lingering impact of COVID-19, both as a direct cause of death and as a contributor to cardiovascular mortality,” the company states. “Reducing the impact of COVID-19 on elderly and vulnerable populations will be key to excess mortality returning to zero.” 

The report, The future of excess mortality after COVID-19, says many countries are still reporting elevated all-cause excess mortality compared to pre-pandemic levels. “If the ongoing impact of the disease is not curtailed, excess mortality rates in the general population will remain up to three per cent higher than pre-pandemic levels,” they state.  

Far from over 

“COVID-19 is far from over,” adds Paul Murray, life and health reinsurance CEO at Swiss Re. “The U.S. reported an average of 1,500 COVID-19 deaths a week for 2023 – comparable to fentanyl or firearm deaths. If this continues, our analysis suggests a potential scenario of elevated excess mortality extending over the next decade.” 

Measures including vaccinations for the vulnerable, medical advancements, a return to regular healthcare services and the adoption of healthier lifestyle choices, they say, will be key to getting the figures under control.  

Excess mortality in Canada 

In 2021 excess mortality spiked to 23 per cent above the 2019 baseline in the U.S. and 11 per cent in the U.K. In Canada, the country reported very low excess mortality in 2020, with a gradual increase peaking in 2022 and 2023.  Between 2020 and 2023, excess mortality in Canada attributed to COVID-19 was 6.1 per cent – 10.1 per cent in 2022 and 5.9 per cent in 2023. 

“Excess mortality in the general population is an important indicator for insurers, as shifts in the major causes of death may require a reassessment of additional risk in their mortality portfolios. The current levels of excess mortality are of concern,” they state. “This represents a potential challenge for life and health insurance, with potentially several years of elevated mortality claims ahead,” the report adds. “Insurers may wish to continue to monitor excess mortality and its underlying drivers in the general population closely, as well as the differences between general and insured populations.”